As The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, lenders expect further interest rate reductions and have concerns with retail and consumer sectors.
Global consulting firm J.S. Held, proudly celebrating 50 transformative years, reveals the “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The fourth quarter survey results highlight concern regarding the impact of the presidential election and the timing and magnitude of future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions.
Phoenix’s Q4 2024 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Sixty-two percent of lenders believe the 2024 election, and its aftermath, will have the strongest impact on the economy, while 41% of lenders believe the interest rate changes will have the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders also expressed heavy concern regarding the possibility of constrained liquidity in capital markets. To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/.
Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Almost two-thirds of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital, buoyed by an anticipated decrease in interest rates. Entering new markets follow closely with around half of lenders expressing those plans for their customers.
63% of respondents identified the retail trade industry as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed by the real estate and consumer products industries at 49% and 42% of respondents (respectively).
Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. On average, the Q4 results were identical to Q3, however there was a slight shift in the relaxing of loan structure for smaller sized loans.
Lender optimism in the U.S. economy increased substantially in the near term from 1.76 in Q3 2024 to 2.40. In this current quarter, there is an equal expectation of C and B level performances (47% each), with the remainder skewed toward poorer performance at a D level. More telling, lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term increased greatly from 2.47 to 2.93. Of the lenders surveyed, 53% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a “B” level during the next twelve months, the same level as the prior quarter. In this quarter, there was a shift out of the “D” and “F” predictions into the “A” and “C” categories.
On December 18, 2024, The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by one quarter of a percent. Against that backdrop, Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director of Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, reveals lender sentiment emanating from the October survey. “We are definitely getting mixed messages from lenders. While there is near consensus that the Fed will reduce interest rates by at least an additional 50 basis points in the next six months (87% of all respondents), 41% of lenders identified interest rate risk as a factor that will have the strongest potential to impact the economy,” Jacoby continues, “We believe lenders are concerned about the potential impact if interest rates do not decline at this anticipated pace, which is more of a possibility today than when this survey was completed pre-election. Lenders are also concerned with the consumer, as evidenced by 63% identifying retail and 42% identifying consumer products as industries expected to experience the most volatility in the next six to twelve months. Nevertheless, the GPA for the U.S. economy for the coming six months increased by 64 basis points to 2.40, the highest grade since Q2 2021.” Based on lender sentiment expressed in the Q4 survey, the question remains - will we see further reductions when the Fed meets again in Q1 2025?