While retail sales are expected to increase this holiday shopping season compared to last year, U.S.-based importers and suppliers who sell goods to retailers are not entirely confident consumers are going to open their wallets, according to a new survey conducted by Capital Business Credit (CBC), a supply chain finance company.

According to the CBC Global Retail Manufacturers and Importers Survey, responses were divided when asked how holiday sales will perform this year compared to last year – 32 percent believe sales will be stronger, while 29 percent believe sales will be weaker. Thirty-nine percent believe they will be the same.

“Even though consumer spending has increased over the course of the year, manufacturers and wholesalers that work with major retailers are providing mixed signals regarding how this holiday shopping season will perform,” said Andrew Tananbaum, executive chairman, CBC. “In fact, only 27 percent reported an increase in orders from retailers this year for the holiday season, while 21 percent reported a decrease.”

With consumers programmed to wait for discounts, respondents were split down the middle when asked if retailers will heavily rely on discounting to move merchandise this holiday, with 56 percent stating yes and 44 percent indicating they will not. Of those that stated retailers will rely on discounting, 85 percent believe margins will be impacted.

One thing that respondents did agree upon is the fact that online sales will increase:

• 36 percent believe online sales will increase one to three percent
• About a quarter (24 percent) believe online sales will increase four to five percent
• A third (33 percent) believe online sales will increase six to ten percent

Fall 2016
When it comes to the Fall 2016 retail season, 84 percent indicated orders increased or stayed the same. However once again, responses were split down the middle when it came to reorders for fall merchandise. More than half (56 percent) indicated that they were receiving reorders for fall merchandise while 44 percent have not.

Methodology
CBC surveyed approximately 40 retail importers and manufacturers that supply close to $670 million in goods at retail outlets throughout the United States.  These wholesalers sell to all segments of the retail supply chain with the exception of the juniors market.

Established in 1988, Capital Business Credit LLC is a global financial products and services company.  The company’s solutions include: full-service factoring; accounts receivable management services; inventory lending; asset-based lending; and international financing.  CBC Trade Finance, a division of CBC, provides trade finance solutions for U.S.-based importers working with Asia-based suppliers (exporters). Capital Business Credit is based in New York, with offices in Hong Kong; Shanghai, Los Angeles; Charlotte, NC; and Ft. Lauderdale, FL.