From the fourth quarter Phoenix Management “Lending Climate in America” Survey, results show that retail trade and finance & insurance industries supplanted construction for the first time in two years as those industries most likely to experience volatility.

When asked to identify three industries that will experience the most volatility in the next six months, 48% of lenders agree that retail trade will experience the greatest volatility. This is a nine percentage point increase over last quarter (thirty-nine percent). Finance and insurance followed close behind with 38% of those polled (a jump of twelve points from last quarter). Somewhat surprising, construction landed in third place this quarter with 28% of lender responses. Last quarter construction had a majority response of 61%.

“This is an interesting shift from lenders,” says Michael Jacoby, Phoenix senior managing director and shareholder. “The results surprised me a bit. I know that home prices have seen a recent uptick, but it is unusual to see the construction industry drop to third place.”

The survey also found lenders this quarter believe an uptick of bankruptcies and loan losses are on the horizon. These two categories increased by eight percentage points and two percentage points respectively. There was also a five percentage point increase in those lenders who feel unemployment will increase as well.

View the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey.