Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index experienced approximate year-over-year earnings growth of 10% and revenue growth of 8.3% during the first two months of the fourth quarter of 2019. This compares to approximate year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2% and revenue growth of 9.6% in the third quarter of 2019.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, "The consensus view at the end of 2018 was that the U.S. economy was at material risk of a recession in 2019. Our data said otherwise. The strong revenue and earnings growth in our portfolio of U.S. middle market companies showed that the domestically oriented half of the U.S. economy was in great shape at the start of 2019—and remained in great shape throughout the year. The fourth quarter of 2019 was another solid quarter for U.S. businesses selling primarily to U.S. customers. The Golub Capital Altman Index posted a ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth and a seventh consecutive quarter of earnings growth at or near double-digit rates. The strong performance of domestically focused U.S. businesses in the fourth quarter of 2019 shows the U.S. economy has momentum going into 2020."

Dr. Edward I. Altman said, "Revenue and earnings growth remain robust, although we are not surprised to see a modest deceleration after two years of remarkable growth. Our view on the Industrial sector continues to diverge from mainstream expectations. While we acknowledge potential headwinds from weak manufacturing data, trade uncertainties and soft expectations for global growth, domestically focused U.S. industrials continue to thrive. Earnings growth accelerated and margins expanded in the fourth quarter of 2019—despite rising costs and a strong labor market. Our data indicates that domestically focused U.S. industrial businesses remain resilient despite the challenges facing industrials that compete in global markets."