Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index experienced year-over-year earnings growth of 14.9% and revenue growth of 1.1% during the first two months of the third quarter of 2020.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, "The U.S. economy showed encouraging signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2020. Strong year-over-year earnings growth in our portfolio of U.S. middle market companies suggests that companies quickly cut costs to adapt to COVID and benefited from improved margins as the economy reopened. Robust revenue and earnings growth in the Technology sector indicate that businesses remained willing to invest in enhancing their efficiency. We don't want to overstate the evidence of recovery; the Golub Capital Altman Index does not reflect the ongoing impact of COVID in sectors like airlines, energy and hospitality, which are not in the Golub Capital portfolio. However, our data suggests that investors should not underestimate the resilience of the U.S. middle market."

Dr. Edward I. Altman said, "The improvement in the Consumer and Healthcare sectors exceeded our expectations. Many Golub Capital Altman Index constituents in these sectors experienced significant disruption in April and May. However, median revenue for July and August was approximately back to pre-COVID levels. This performance suggests that Consumer and Healthcare companies found ways to capture pent-up demand once they were allowed to reopen."

The Golub Capital Altman Index data for Q1 2020 and Q2 2020 are presented solely for the purpose of continuity. Readers are encouraged to interpret the data from those periods with caution. The Golub Capital Middle Market Report is designed to offer early insight into the performance of the U.S. economy, based on data from the first two months of each calendar quarter. The Q1 2020 report was based on data from January and February and did not reflect the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March. The Q2 2020 report was based on data from April and May and did not reflect the meaningful reopening of the U.S. economy in June. We do not believe either report provides actionable insight about economic performance for the first or second quarter as a whole.